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It is shown analytically that the multitarget multiBernoulli (MeMBer) recursion, proposed by Mahler, has a significant bias in the number of targets. To reduce the cardinality bias, a novel multiBernoulli approximation to the multi-target Bayes recursion is derived. Under the same assumptions as the MeMBer recursion, the proposed recursion is unbiased. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) implementation (for generic models) and a Gaussian mixture (GM) implementation (for linear Gaussian models) are proposed. The latter is also extended to accommodate mildly nonlinear models by linearization and the unscented transform.
Vo et al. (Thu,) studied this question.