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The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from the experimental Eta-Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of forecasts from the Nested Grid Model's model output statistics (MOS) over a set of 13 case days from September 1995 through January 1996. Ensembles adjusted to compensate for deficiencies noted in prior forecasts were found to be more skillful than MOS for all precipitation categories except the basic probability of measurable precipitation. Gamma distributions fit to the corrected ensemble probability distributions provided an additional small improvement.
Hamill et al. (Sun,) studied this question.