Exact asymptotics for the stationary distribution of a Markov chain: a production model

We derive rough and exact asymptotic expressions for the stationary distribution π of a Markov chain arising in a queueing/production context. The approach we develop can also handle “cascades,” which are situations where the fluid limit of the large deviation path from the origin to the increasingly rare event is nonlinear. Our approach considers a process that starts at the rare event. In our production example, we can have two sequences of states that asymptotically lie on the same line, yet π has different asymptotics on the two sequences.