Have winter fuel payments reduced excess winter mortality in England and Wales?

BACKGROUND: The historical series of excess winter mortality (EWM) in England and Wales presents a negative trend. Winter fuel payments (WFPs) are the most important benefits for people aged 65 or over directly related to Winter Mortality in the UK. METHODS: This study presents a time series analysis of the direct effect of WFPs on EWM in England and Wales. RESULTS: We find a significant structural break in trend and volatility in the EWM series in England and Wales in 1999-2000. After controlling for a number of covariates, an ARIMA-X model finds that WFPs can account for almost half of the reduction in EWM in England and Wales since 1999/2000. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of the reduction in EWM since 1999/2000 is attributable to WFPs.