A Statistical Evaluation of Models for the Initial Settlement of the American Continent Emphasizes the Importance of Gene Flow with Asia

Although there is agreement in that the Bering Strait was the entry point for the initial colonization of the American continent, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and pattern of human migration from Asia to America. In order to perform a statistical assessment of the relative probability of alternative migration scenarios and to estimate key demographic parameters associated with them, we used an approximate Bayesian computation framework to analyze a data set of 401 autosomal microsatellite loci typed in 29 native American populations. A major finding is that a single, discrete, wave of colonization is highly inconsistent with observed levels of genetic diversity. A scenario with two discrete migration waves is also not supported by the data. The current genetic diversity of Amerindian populations is best explained by a third model involving recurrent gene flow between Asia and America, after initial colonization. We estimate that this colonization involved about 100 individuals and occurred some 13,000 years ago, in agreement with well-established archeological data.