The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money‐Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long‐Run Identifying Restrictions

Abstract The impact of monetary policy on agriculture has been much debated. This study examines the dynamic responses of U.S. agricultural prices to money‐supply shocks using three innovations. First, the variables' responses are identified by long‐run money neutrality restrictions instead of the more common contemporaneous ordering. Second, a Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is used to add robustness to the estimation process. Third, agricultural prices are disaggregated into crop and livestock components. The empirical results find that both agricultural sectors benefit in the short run from positive money‐supply shocks with agricultural prices increasing relative to the general price level.