Self-rated health and a healthy lifestyle are the most important predictors of survival in elderly women

OBJECTIVE: to test the hypothesis that morbidity and health related behavioural factors are stronger than social factors as predictors of death among older women. METHODS: we used data from 12, 422 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 70-75 in 1996. Proportional hazards models of survival up to 31 October 2005 were fitted separately for the whole cohort and those women who were initially in 'good health'. RESULTS: among the whole cohort, 18. 7% died during the followᵤp period. The strongest predictor of death was 'poor' or 'fair' self-rated health (with 52. 3% and 28. 0%, respectively, of women in these categories dying). Among the women in 'good health' at baseline 11. 5% died, with current cigarette smoking (hazard ratio HR = 2. 19, 95% confidence interval (1. 71, 2. 81), physical inactivity (HR = 1. 45 (1. 17, 1. 81) ), and age (HR = 1. 10 (1. 04, 1. 16) per year) as statistically significant predictors of death. DISCUSSION: among older women, current health and health related behaviours are stronger predictors than social factors of relatively early mortality. Adopting a healthier lifestyle, by doing more exercise and not smoking, is beneficial even in old age.