Gentrification and Crime

We expect gentrification to be associated with increasing larceny and robbery rates based on human ecological theory and gentrification research. In Baltimore, gentrifying neighborhoods, as compared to other appreciating neighborhoods, experienced significant unexpected increases in robbery and did not decline as much in larceny. The ecological characteristics of gentrifying neighborhoods partially explain this linkage. Results confirm but also question human ecological theory, underscoring the detrimental effects of rapid neighborhood change but also indicating, contrary to expectations, that human ecological processes of invasion-succession have not, and may not, reach completion in gentrifying neighborhoods. If the invasion-succession cycle remains "stalled," the locations may remain vulnerable to continuing high levels of disorder.