Serum Interleukin 6 Is Predictive of Early Functional Decline and Mortality in Interstitial Lung Disease Associated with Systemic Sclerosis

OBJECTIVE: Biomarkers of progression of interstitial lung disease (ILD) are needed to allow early therapeutic intervention in patients with scleroderma-associated disease (SSc-ILD). METHODS: A panel of 8 serum cytokines interleukin 6 (IL-6), IL-8, IL-10, CCL2, CXCL10, vascular endothelial growth factor, fibroblast growth factor 2, and CX3CL1 was assessed by Luminex bead technology in exploratory cohorts of 74 patients with SSc and 58 patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Mortality and significant lung function decline forced vital capacity (FVC) ≥ 10%; DLCO ≥ 15% from date of serum collection were evaluated by proportional hazards analysis. Based on these findings, the prognostic value of serum IL-6, evaluated by ELISA, was assessed in a larger test cohort of 212 patients with SSc-ILD. RESULTS: In the exploratory cohort, only serum IL-6 was an independent predictor of DLCO decline in both IPF and SSc-ILD. The IL-6 threshold level most predictive of DLCO decline within a year was 7.67 pg/ml. In the larger test cohort, serum IL-6 > 7.67 pg/ml was predictive of decline in FVC (HR 2.58 ± 0.98, p = 0.01) and in DLCO (HR 3.2 ± 1.7, p = 0.02) within the first year, and predictive of death within the first 30 months (HR 2.69 ± 0.96, p = 0.005). When stratified according to severity (FVC 7.67 pg/ml was predictive of functional decline or death within the first year in patients with milder disease (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.4-7.2, p = 0.007), but not in those with severe ILD. CONCLUSION: In SSc-ILD, serum IL-6 levels appear to be predictive of early disease progression in patients with mild ILD, and could be used to target treatment in this group, if confirmed by prospective studies.