Which ambulatory blood pressure monitoring-derived blood pressure index is the strongest predictor of stroke in the general population?
Among ambulatory blood pressure indices, pulse pressure is the weakest independent predictor of stroke, as its predictive value is heavily confounded by age.
We investigated the association between stroke and blood pressure (BP) indices (systolic BP SBP, diastolic BP DBP, mean BP MBP, and pulse pressure PP) determined by ambulatory BP monitoring. The predictive power for stroke of these indices was compared in the general Japanese population. We obtained ambulatory BP data in 1271 subjects (40% men) aged > or = 40 (mean: 61) years. During a mean follow-up of 11 years, 113 strokes were observed. The multivariate adjusted relative hazard and likelihood ratio for a 1-SD increase for each BP index was determined by Cox proportional hazard regression. Comparison of the likelihood ratio between Cox models including 2 indices and those including 1 index indicated that PP was significantly less informative than other indices (P0.09 when adding PP to the model including another index). However, after removing age from covariates, PP became more informative than DBP and MBP (P<0.0001 when adding PP to the MBP or DBP model, whereas SBP was more informative than PP even after removing age; P<0.05 when adding SBP to the PP model). In conclusion, PP was the weakest predictor of stroke. Exclusion of age from covariates increased the predictive power of PP, suggesting that the stroke risk associated with PP reflected the risk of aging per se.
Inoue et al. (Tue,) studied this question.