Risk of ESRD and Death in Patients with CKD Not Referred to a Nephrologist

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Rising prevalence of CKD requires active involvement of general practitioners to limit ESRD and mortality risk. However, the outcomes of patients with CKD exclusively managed by general practitioners are ill defined. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, interquartile range=4.7-7.7), 6592 patients died and 295 started ESRD. Compared with stages 1 and 2 (reference), mortality risk (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval) was higher in stages 3b-5 (1.66, 1.49-1.86, 2.75, 2.41-3.13 and 2.54, 2.01-3.22, respectively) but not stage 3a (1.11, 0.99-1.23). Similarly, ESRD risk (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval) was not higher at stage 3a (1.44, 0.79-2.64) but was greater in stages 3b-5 (11.0, 6.3-19.5, 91.2, 53.2-156.2 and, 122.8, 67.9-222.0, respectively). Among modifiable risk factors, anemia and albuminuria significantly predicted either outcome, whereas hypertension only predicted mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CKD not referred to nephrology, risks of ESRD and mortality were higher in those with CKD stages 3b-5.