A Probabilistic Indicator of System Stress

This paper argues that probabilistic techniques give a more reliable indication of the level of stress in a power system and also of its inverse, the level of security. It proposes a technique to calculate a probabilistic indicator of the level of stress in a power system. This technique is based on the establishment of a calibrated scale of reference cases and on the use of correlated sampling in a Monte Carlo simulation. Test results obtained using a large power system are presented.