The Relation of Exports and Economic Growth

Among economists there has generally been a lack of agreement as to the specific relation between exports and economic growth. The hypothesis presented here is that there is a causal relationship between the two, that this relationship is one of interdependence rather than of unilateral causation, but that it is mainly a rise in exports that stimulates an increase in aggregate economic growth rather than vice versa. There are strong logical and empirical grounds supporting the hypothesis. Rising exports provide the wherewithal for increased imports, so important to economic growth. Emphasis on exports helps concentrate investment in the more efficient sectors of the economy, thus raising productivity. Efficiency is aided further by production for international markets since this permits greater economies of scale and forces firms to hold down their costs in order to remain competitive in international markets. In addition, profitable export industries stimulate additional investment, encourage an increased flow of new technology and managerrial skills, and stimulate increased consumption. The hypothesis was also tested statistically. Multiple correlations and simple least-squares regression equations were calculated for a group of 50 countries using data on average rates of growth of per capita real G. N. P., of exports, and of earnings on current account during 1953-63. The results showed: 1. that the most significant correlation was between exports and G. N. P.; 2. that for every 2 1/2per cent increase in exports, per capita real G. N. P. showed a rise of 1 per cent; and 3. that this last relationship had a high degree of statistical reliability.