Precipitation and Temperature Variations on the Interannual Time Scale: Assessing the Impact of ENSO and Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract The effects of ENSO and two large tropical volcanic eruptions (El Chichón, March 1982; Mt. Pinatubo, June 1991) are examined for the period of 1979–2008 using various satellite- and station-based observations of precipitation, temperature (surface and atmospheric), and tropospheric water vapor content. By focusing on the responses in the time series of tropical and global means over land, ocean, and land and ocean combined, the authors intend to provide an observational comparison of how these two phenomena, represented by Niño-3.4 and the tropical mean stratospheric aerosol optical thickness (τ), respectively, influence precipitation, temperature, and water vapor variations. As discovered in past studies, strong same-sign ENSO signals appear in tropical and global mean temperature (surface and tropospheric) over both land and ocean. However, ENSO only has very weak impact on tropical and global mean (land + ocean) precipitation, though intense anomalies are readily seen in the time series of precipitation averaged over either land or ocean. In contrast, the two volcanoes decreased not only tropical and global mean surface and tropospheric temperature but also tropical and global mean (land + ocean) precipitation. The differences between the responses to ENSO and volcanic eruptions are thus further examined by means of lag-correlation analyses. The ENSO-related peak responses in oceanic precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) have the same time lags with Niño-3.4, 2 (4) months for the tropical (global) means. Tropical and global mean tropospheric water vapor over ocean (and land) generally follows surface temperature. However, land precipitation responds to ENSO much faster than temperature, suggesting a certain time needed for surface energy adjustment there following ENSO-related circulation and precipitation anomalies. Weak ENSO signals in the tropical and global mean mid- to lower-tropospheric atmospheric (dry) static instability are further discovered, which tend to be consistent with weak ENSO responses in the tropical and global mean (land + ocean) precipitation. For volcanic eruptions, tropical and global mean precipitation over either ocean or land responds faster than temperature (surface and atmospheric) and tropospheric water vapor averaged over the same areas, suggesting that precipitation tends to be more sensitive to volcanic-related solar forcing. The volcanic-related precipitation variations are further shown to be related to the changes in the mid- to lower-tropospheric atmospheric (dry) instability.