Parsimonious Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion in a nonlinear geophysical problem

Summary A key element in the solution of a geophysical inverse problem is the quantification of non-uniqueness, that is, how much parameters of an inferred earth model can vary while fitting a set of measurements. A widely used approach is that of Bayesian inference, where Bayes' rule is used to determine the uncertainty of the earth model parameters a posteriori given the data. I describe here, a natural extension of Bayesian parameter estimation that accounts for the posterior probability of how complex an earth model is (specifically, how many layers it contains). This approach has a built-in parsimony criterion: among all earth models that fit the data, those with fewer parameters (fewer layers) have higher posterior probabilities. To implement this approach in practice, I use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm applied to the nonlinear problem of inverting DC resistivity sounding data to infer characteristics of a 1-D earth model. The earth model is parametrized as a layered medium, where the number of layers and their resistivities and thicknesses are poorly known a priori. The algorithm obtains a sample of layered media from the posterior distribution; this sample measures non-uniqueness in terms of how many layers are effectively resolved by the data and of the range of layer thicknesses and resistivities consistent with the data. Because the complexity of the model is effectively determined by the data, the solution does not need to be regularized. This is a desirable feature, because requiring the solution to be smooth beyond what is implied by prior information can lead to underestimating posterior uncertainty. Letting the number of layers be a free parameter, as done here, broadens the space of earth models possible a priori and makes the determination of posterior uncertainty less dependent on the parametrization.