How Will Global Climate Change Affect Risks from Long-Range Transport of Persistent Organic Pollutants?

Climate change and climate variability affect risk from contaminants by changing exposure to chemicals, either through the alteration of pathways or through alteration of environmental concentrating mechanisms. The alteration of pathways is affected by changing the balance between transport and deposition. Although the influence of temperature on multimedia partitioning can be modelled successfully, estimating alteration in other climate components such as distribution and form of precipitation provides a much greater challenge. To understand how climate change affects contaminant concentrations, we distinguish two types of environmental concentrating processes — solvent switching and solvent depletion. The first process, which is simply chemical partitioning, runs spontaneously toward equilibrium. This process alone can explain hemispheric-scale distributions of hexachlorocyclohexane, which partitions strongly into water, and high concentrations of organochlorines at the bottom of aquatic foodwebs. The latter process involves the maintenance of contaminant burdens during the loss of solvent, with the aquatic foodweb providing one of the better-known examples. Solvent reducing processes can produce contaminant concentrations well above thermodynamic equilibrium with a number of important examples provided by phase changes in water (freezing, snow melting). These solvent-reducing processes, which are poorly studied, provide some of the best circumstances for climate change to produce alteration in persistent organic pollutants exposure pathways.