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This study examined the relationship between risk factors and alcohol use among seventh graders concurrently and over a 15-month period. Subjects were classified as abstainers, experimenters and users based on a quantity-frequency index of usage. A discriminant analysis predicting alcohol usage using concurrent risk factors generated two functions. The first was composed of measures associated with deviance and peer-related measures. Family-related risk factors and grade average comprised the second function. These functions correctly classified 68% of subjects. A second analysis used Time 1 risk factors to predict alcohol usage 15 months later. The first function was composed of factors related to deviance, family factors, and peer approval. Only peer use loaded on the second function. These functions were able to correctly classify 58% of subjects. Results are discussed in terms of implications of these findings for use in targeting prevention programs relative to adolescents' risk level, and the relative importance of various risk factors.
Webb et al. (Fri,) studied this question.