Application of a fuzzy neural network combined with a chaos genetic algorithm and simulated annealing to short-term load forecasting

A fuzzy neural network combined with a chaos-search genetic algorithm (CGA) and simulated annealing (SA), hereafter called the FCS method, or simply the FCS, applied to short-term power-system load forecasting as a sample test is proposed in this paper. A fuzzy hyperrectangular composite neural network (FHCNN) is adopted for the initial load forecasting. An integrated CGA and fuzzy system (CGF) and SA is then used to find the optimal FHCNN parameters instead of the ones with the back propagation method. The CGF method will generate a set of parameters for a feasible solution. The CGF method holds good global search capability but poor local search ability. On the contrary, the SA method possesses a good local optimal search capability. We hence propose in this paper to combine the two methods to exploit their advantages and, furthermore, to eliminate the known downside of the traditional artificial neural network. The proposed FCS is next applied to power-system load forecasting as a sample test, which demonstrates an encouraging degree of accuracy superior to other commonly used forecasting methods available. The forecasting results are tabulated and partially converted into bar charts for evaluation and clear comparisons.