Global meridional interactions in stratosphere and troposphere

Abstract Significant correlations have been found between year to year mean latitudes of the surface high pressure belt, L , over eastern Australia and atmospheric parameters such as total ozone, winds and temperatures at various levels in the troposphere and stratosphere, and rainfall. In those years when, in late winter and spring, the high pressure belt lies nearer to the Equator it appears that the Hadley circulation and poleward transport processes in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere in middle latitudes are stronger. This is probably also associated with the earlier breakdown of the winter stratospheric polar vortex. Evidence is presented to support the view that L is determined to a good approximation by the criterion for baroclinic instability which was derived by Phillips and Smagorinsky and applied to climatology by Flohn and Henning. Thus variations in L are related to variations in the driving force of the Hadley circulation, which in turn may well be related to variations in sea surface temperature. This encourages the view that an empirical and theoretical basis for long‐range seasonal forecasts of temperate zone climate may be in prospect. The results should lead to a greater understanding of the nature of global climatic change.