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The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that were made publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.
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Colin F. Camerer
University of Notre Dame
Anna Dreber
Stockholm School of Economics
Eskil Forsell
Uppsala University
Science
California Institute of Technology
National University of Singapore
University of Gothenburg
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Camerer et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
synapsesocial.com/papers/69d68f4cce5e22ae23db8287 — DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf0918