Mortality Decline and Japanese Family Structure

This paper documents the effect of mortality change in the 20th century on the probabilities of survival for various family members in Japan. Focus is on the following: family types of Japans ideal in particular and of changes in actual living arrangements in Japan; the decline in Japanese mortality in the 20th century; the probabilities of a childs survival to age 15 of parents survival to the childs 15th birthday of grandparents survival and of the survival of the family as a whole; and the policy issues raised by the analysis. 3 types of family/household structures are defined: nuclear or conjugal--composed of 1 married couple and their children or alternatively a single parent and children; stem or lineal--composed of 2 married couples of different generations or of a single parent living with a married child--which is the ideal family structure in Japan; and joint--composed of 2 or more married siblings and their offspring. Japan is noted for its traditional stem family system known as ie. This lineal family system was promoted and reinforced during the Meiji reform government of the late 19th century. With the advance of modernization and contact with the Western world changes in this family system occurred. The authority of the traditional patriarchal system was challenged by these changes. In 1920 54.0% of households in Japan were conjugal or nuclear family households. By 1955 59.6% fell into this category and the percentage increased to 63.5% in 1970 and has remained fairly stable since then. More striking is the increase in the percentage of single person households. In 1960 only 4.7% of households were of this type. By 1970 they accounted for 10.8% and by 1980 they were 15.8% of ordinary households. More and more households with members age 65 and older are nuclear and single person households rather than stem households. Despite clear cut changes in living arrangements in Japan there is some reluctance to acknowledge them. The steady decline of mortality in Japan started in the last half of the 19th century but proceeded slowly until the end of World War 2. Following World War 2 and its temporarily higher death rates the introduction of new public health measures and medical technology advanced survival at a tremendous rate. Further marked improvement in survival is not expected without additional technological and medical breakthroughs. In fact there is concern that postwar increases in alcohol and tobacco consumption as well as other behavior changes may actually work to increase mortality for some age groups in Japan. The rapid increase in survival probabilities for Japanese at all ages during the 20th century has significant implications for the living arrangements of families. Lower mortality means that all other things equal the ability to form a 3 generation household from family members is improved. The probability of a child surviving from birth to age 15 increased from .72 in 1899 to .99 in 1980. By 1980 with an average of 2 children the probability that 1 or more would die by age 15 was only .02. The changes of parents and grandparents survival have also improved.