Reducing time-scale uncertainty for the Devonian by integrating astrochronology and Bayesian statistics

Research Article| June 01, 2014 Reducing time-scale uncertainty for the Devonian by integrating astrochronology and Bayesian statistics David De Vleeschouwer; David De Vleeschouwer * 1Earth System Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium *E-mail: dadevlee@gmail.com. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Andrew C. Parnell Andrew C. Parnell 2School of Mathematical Sciences, Complex and Adaptive Systems Laboratory, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information David De Vleeschouwer * 1Earth System Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium Andrew C. Parnell 2School of Mathematical Sciences, Complex and Adaptive Systems Laboratory, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland *E-mail: dadevlee@gmail.com. Publisher: Geological Society of America Received: 26 Feb 2014 Revision Received: 11 Mar 2014 Accepted: 11 Mar 2014 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2682 Print ISSN: 0091-7613 © 2014 Geological Society of America Geology (2014) 42 (6): 491–494. https://doi.org/10.1130/G35618.1 Article history Received: 26 Feb 2014 Revision Received: 11 Mar 2014 Accepted: 11 Mar 2014 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation David De Vleeschouwer, Andrew C. Parnell; Reducing time-scale uncertainty for the Devonian by integrating astrochronology and Bayesian statistics. Geology 2014;; 42 (6): 491–494. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G35618.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract Dealing with uncertainties is inherent to the scientific process. In the process of building geologic time scales, the reported uncertainties are at least as important as the estimates of the numerical ages. Currently all time scales for the Devonian are based on conventional age-depth models, constructed by linear or cubic interpolation between different dated positions. Unfortunately, such models tend to produce overoptimistic confidence intervals. In this study we apply Bayesian statistics to the Devonian time scale to better incorporate stratigraphic and radioisotopic uncertainty. This approach yields a Devonian time scale characterized by increasing uncertainty with growing stratigraphic distance from a radioisotopically dated sample. This feature is absent from The Geologic Time Scale 2012; therefore, that time scale is overoptimistic. We further constrain the obtained time scale by incorporating astrochronological duration estimates for the Givetian and Frasnian stages. The combination of radioisotopic dating and astrochronology results in a reduction of the uncertainty on the numerical age of the stage boundaries concerned by several million years. For example, we estimate the age of the Frasnian-Famennian boundary at 373.9 ± 1.4 Ma. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.