Changes in Family Structure in China: A Simulation Study

A simulation model used to study the effects of changing demographic factors on family size and structure in China indicates that average family size declined 10% between 1950-70 and 1981 dropping from 4.90 to 4.37 persons per family. The proportion of nuclear families in the 1981 simulation (51.3%) dropped from the 1950-70 level (72.2%). Both of these changes result largely from declining fertility. The majority of Chinese families (about 90%) continue to have both husband and wife present a feature that is likely to continue. Fertility and the propensity for coresidence of three generations will be the most important factors affecting Chinese family size and type while the effects of changing mortality and nuptiality patterns will be modest. An interplay of socioeconomic factors reducing the propensity for coresidence (e.g. cultural modernization housing constraints in urban areas migration to urban areas and more people on pensions and social security) and factors sustaining this propensity (e.g. the desire for large families to ensure an inexpensive labor supply slow development of the pension system and the ethical tradition of care and respect for the elderly) can be expected. Since the propensity for coresidence is not likely to fall dramatically in the years ahead the proportion of nuclear families will probably decrease. Later however further fertility reductions are expected to intensify the effects of a gradually decreasing propensity for coresidence and increase the proportion of nuclear families.