Some Demographic Clues to Stratification

LIntroduction. Before the war, we were considerably concerned about the gradual emergence of social classes in our traditionally if not actually classless society. Lately, more immediate problems have been absorbing our attention; yet if the history of past wars teaches anything, it is that nations depart from peace conferences to face in exaggerated form many of the same internal social trends as before. We can ill afford to wait until the present war ends to try to foresee what problems lie ahead. The title of this paper is chosen advisedly: some clues does not mean all clues, nor is it implied that demography could possibly throw light on all aspects of the formation of social classes. Indeed the very term social class denotes a psychological or cultural phenomenon not measurable in the objective terms of demography. The present subject of discussion is not fullfledged social classes but some processes which may favor their development. The argument which follows may be summarized thus. Not universal equality nor near-equality of status but a high rate of vertical mobility has been the most important demographic basis of this nation's tradition of classlessness. The long-existing favorable balance of vertical circulation of individuals in American society, i.e., the excess of upward over downward moves, has diminished and seems likely to be further reduced. Development of class consciousness will be likely to occur unless our social institutions are so readjusted as to produce a large amount of compensating up-and-down movement of individuals. The educational system, which is the chief American institution explicitly conceived as a mechanism for facilitating the ascent of talented individuals, must become more highly selective of individual merit if the loss of certain dwindling sources of upward mobility is to be offset. It must be admitted that there is no criterion of what would be exactly enough vertical mobility to prevent the formation of conscious and hostile classes in our nation, yet in relative terms, it can be shown that there is danger of actual circulation falling short of the critical amount. II. The Trend of the Upward Tide. Technological progress, immigration, and differential fertility have heretofore contributed to a great excess of upward over downward circulation in American society. Technological progress during the last few decades has rapidly reduced the proportion of the population engaged in the physical labor of producing