Light-Duty Vehicle CO2 Targets Consistent with 450 ppm CO2 Stabilization

We present a global analysis of CO2 emission reductions from the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration at 450 ppm. The CO2 emission reductions are described by g CO2/km emission targets for average new light-duty vehicles on a tank-to-wheel basis between 2010 and 2050 that we call CO2 glide paths. The analysis accounts for growth of the vehicle fleet, changing patterns in driving distance, regional availability of biofuels, and the changing composition of fossil fuels. New light-duty vehicle fuel economy and CO2 regulations in the U.S. through 2025 and in the EU through 2020 are broadly consistent with the CO2 glide paths. The glide path is at the upper end of the discussed 2025 EU range of 68-78 g CO2/km. The proposed China regulation for 2020 is more stringent than the glide path, while the 2017 Brazil regulation is less stringent. Existing regulations through 2025 are broadly consistent with the light-duty vehicle sector contributing to stabilizing CO2 at approximately 450 ppm. The glide paths provide long-term guidance for LDV powertrain/fuel development.