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Abstract The relationships between the onset of tropical deep convection, column water vapor (CWV), and other measures of conditional instability are analyzed with 2 yr of data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility in Manacapuru, Brazil, as part of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) campaign, and with 3.5 yr of CWV derived from global positioning system meteorology at a nearby site in Manaus, Brazil. Important features seen previously in observations over tropical oceans—precipitation conditionally averaged by CWV exhibiting a sharp pickup at high CWV, and the overall shape of the CWV distribution for both precipitating and nonprecipitating points—are also found for this tropical continental region. The relationship between rainfall and CWV reflects the impact of lower-free-tropospheric moisture variability on convection. Specifically, CWV over land, as over ocean, is a proxy for the effect of free-tropospheric moisture on conditional instability as indicated by entraining plume calculations from GOAmazon data. Given sufficient mixing in the lower troposphere, higher CWV generally results in greater plume buoyancies through a deep convective layer. Although sensitivity of buoyancy to other controls in the Amazon is suggested, such as boundary layer and microphysical processes, the CWV dependence is consistent with the observed precipitation onset. Overall, leading aspects of the relationship between CWV and the transition to deep convection in the Amazon have close parallels over tropical oceans. The relationship is robust to averaging on time and space scales appropriate for convective physics but is strongly smoothed for averages greater than 3 h or 2.5°.
Schiro et al. (Tue,) studied this question.