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OVERVIEW:Improvements in the standard of living depend to a remarkable degree on the success of industrial innovations, but the odds of any one idea becoming an economic success are so very low that many ideas are needed. Success curves for industrial innovation have been developed from three major sources, including: the project literature, patent literature and experience, and venture capitalists. Remarkably similar results were found from all three sources of information.Understanding success curves is important for at least three reasons: 1. To set expectations of those involved in industrial innovation; 2. To benchmark one's own process against others in the industry; and, 3. To calculate future expected benefits from current innovation spending as a function of the stage of the new product development process and the typical success rates found for each stage.
Stevens et al. (Thu,) studied this question.