Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation: An Efficient Statistical Approach

A novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach is proposed to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming-based prediction interval construction model for PV power generation is established based on an extreme learning machine and quantile regression, featuring high reliability and computational efficiency. The proposed approach is validated through the numerical studies on PV data from Denmark.