Sustainable crop intensification through surface water irrigation in Bangladesh? A geospatial assessment of landscape-scale production potential

case study area in southwestern Bangladesh. We combined these data with georeferenced and temporally explicitly soil and water salinity information, in addition to relative elevation classifications, in order to examine the extent of winter fallows and low productivity rainfed cropland that could be irrigated by small-scale surface water pumps. Applying observations of irrigated crop sowing dates and yields from 510 wheat, 550 maize, and 553 rice farmers, we also modeled crop intensification production scenarios within the case study area. We conservatively estimate that at least 20,800 and 103,000 ha of fallow and rainfed cropland, respectively, could be brought into intensified double cropping using SWI. Scenario analysis indicates that if 25%-75% of the fallow or low-intensity land were converted to irrigated maize, national aggregate production could increase by 10-14% or 29-42%, respectively. Conversion to wheat would conversely boost national production by 9-10% or 26-31%. Irrigated rice is however unlikely to contribute >3%. In aggregate, these actions could generate between USD 36-108 million of revenue annually among farmers. Intensification therefore has important land use policy and food and income security implications, helping to rationalizei SWI investments. Crop choice, water resource allocation, and water governance will however remain crucial considerations for irrigation planners.