Echocardiography is useful to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing isolated coronary bypass surgery: A prospective study

Objective: Postoperative atrial fibrillation is a major complication following coronary artery bypass graft. We hypothesized that, beyond clinical and electrocardiogram (ECG) data, transthoracic echocardiography could improve the prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation. Methods: We prospectively studied 169 patients in sinus rhythm who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft in our institution. Clinical, biological, ECG and transthoracic echocardiography data were collected within 24 h before surgery. The patients were continuously monitored during the first five days, and then had daily 12-lead ECG afterwards until discharge. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was defined by any episode >10 min. Results: Postoperative atrial fibrillation was found in 65 patients (38%). Compared with those without, patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation were significantly older ( p=0.008), had more frequently a history of hypertension ( p=0.009), history of atrial fibrillation ( p<0.001) and New York Heart Association class ⩾III ( p=0.004). They also had longer PR interval ( p=0.005), higher preoperative NT-pro brain natriuretic peptide level ( p=0.006), left ventricle end-diastolic volume ( p=0.002), indexed left ventricle mass ( p<0.0001), indexed maximal left atrial volume ( p<0.0001), maximal right atrial area ( p<0.001) and lower left ventricle ejection fraction ( p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, history of atrial fibrillation (odds ratio =6.1, 95% confidence interval: 1.4–26.0, p=0.02) and indexed maximal left atrial volume (odds ratio =1.13, 95% confidence interval: 1.1–1.2, p=0.001) were the only two independent predictive factors of postoperative atrial fibrillation. The addition of echocardiographic parameters improved the predictive value (χ 2 ) of the model, from 34 to 57. Conclusion: A history of atrial fibrillation and indexed left atrial maximal volume are the best predictors of the occurrence of postoperative atrial fibrillation following coronary artery bypass graft. The identification of high risk population of postoperative atrial fibrillation using these two factors could lead to the development of targeted strategies to limit this frequent complication in these patients.