The AEPEI score, comprising five preoperative risk factors, accurately predicted in-hospital mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis with an area under the curve of 0.780.
Observational (n=361)
Yes
Does a specific scoring system predict in-hospital mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis better than existing general cardiac surgery scores?
A newly developed, simple scoring system specifically designed for infective endocarditis surgery effectively predicts in-hospital mortality and outperforms most general cardiac surgery risk scores.
Effect estimate: AUC 0.780 (95% CI 0.734-0.822)
Background Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis ( IE ). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in‐hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE , and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis. Methods and Results Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in‐hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty‐six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m 2 (odds ratio OR , 1.79; P =0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate 55 mm Hg ( OR , 1.78; P =0.032), and critical state ( OR , 2.37; P =0.017) were independent predictors of in‐hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in‐hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734–0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in‐hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered. Conclusions A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in‐hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE .
Gatti et al. (Sat,) conducted a observational in Infective endocarditis requiring surgery (n=361). Preoperative risk factors (AEPEI score) was evaluated on In-hospital mortality (AUC 0.780, 95% CI 0.734-0.822). The AEPEI score, comprising five preoperative risk factors, accurately predicted in-hospital mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis with an area under the curve of 0.780.