Vietnam’s Foreign Policy in an Era of Rising Sino-US Competition and Increasing Domestic Political Influence

This article examines the dramatic shifts that Vietnam’s foreign policy has undergone over time, from a country tightly allied with Socialist partners like China and the Soviet Union to one that has diversified its strategic partners and foresworn alliances in order to protect its strategic autonomy. Vietnam’s adoption of Doi Moi or economic renovation led Vietnam to multilateralize and expand its economic and political partnerships in the quest for economic growth. Doi Moi’s success has produced a transformation in state–society relations as the rise in civil society organizations has weakened the VCP’s hegemonic grip on society and shifted the basis of regime legitimacy from nationalism and socialist ideology to performance legitimacy. As public opinion and elite factionalism play an increasing role in Vietnam foreign policy, managing Vietnam’s external ties has become increasingly difficult. This article concludes that public opinion regarding relations with China has become so toxic that it poses a serious challenge to the political legitimacy of Vietnam’s one-party regime should it fail to deter Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.