Adding multiple biomarkers to the CHA2DS2-VASc score in anticoagulated AF patients marginally increased its predictive value (c-index 0.65 vs 0.63; p=0.030), with lower net clinical benefit.
Cohort (n=1,361)
Does the addition of multiple biomarkers to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores improve the prediction of cardiovascular events and major bleeding in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients?
Adding multiple biomarkers to clinical risk scores in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients provides only marginal predictive improvement and lower net clinical benefit compared to original scores.
Absolute Event Rate: 0.65% vs 0.63%
p-value: p=0.030
Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks. We investigated if a multibiomarker strategy improved the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in anticoagulated AF patients.Methods: We included consecutive patients stabilized for six months on vitamin K antagonists (INRs 2.0–3.0). High sensitivity troponin T, NT-proBNP, interleukin-6, von Willebrand factor concentrations and glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; using MDRD-4 formula) were quantified at baseline. Time in therapeutic range (TTR) was recorded at six months after inclusion. Patients were follow-up during a median of 2375 (IQR 1564–2887) days and all adverse events were recorded.Results: In 1361 patients, adding four blood biomarkers, TTR and MDRD-eGFR, the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc increased significantly by c-index (0.63 vs. 0.65; p = .030) and IDI (0.85%; p < .001), but not by NRI (−2.82%; p < .001). The predictive value of HAS-BLED increased up to 1.34% by IDI (p < .001). Nevertheless, the overall predictive value remains modest (c-indexes approximately 0.65) and decision curve analyses found lower net benefit compared with the originals scores.Conclusions: Addition of biomarkers enhanced the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED, although the overall improvement was modest and the added predictive advantage over original scores was marginal.Key MessagesRecent atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines for the first time suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks, but their usefulness in real world for risk stratification is still questionable.In this cohort study involving 1361 AF patients optimally anticoagulated with vitamin K antagonists, adding high sensitivity troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, interleukin 6, von Willebrand factor, glomerular filtration rate (by the MDRD-4 formula) and time in therapeutic range, increased the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc for cardiovascular events, but not the predictive value of HAS-BLED for major bleeding. Reclassification analyses did not show improvement adding multiple biomarkers.Despite the improvement observed, the added predictive advantage is marginal and the clinical usefulness and net benefit over current clinical scores is lower.
Roldán et al. (Mon,) conducted a cohort in Atrial fibrillation (n=1,361). Addition of multiple biomarkers (hs-TnT, NT-proBNP, IL-6, vWF, eGFR, TTR) vs. Original CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores was evaluated on Predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc (c-index) (p=0.030). Adding multiple biomarkers to the CHA2DS2-VASc score in anticoagulated AF patients marginally increased its predictive value (c-index 0.65 vs 0.63; p=0.030), with lower net clinical benefit.