Personalized disease prediction using a CNN-based similarity learning method

Predicting patients' risk of developing certain diseases is an important research topic in healthcare. Personalized predictive modeling, which focuses on building specific models for individual patients, has shown its advantages on utilizing heterogeneous health data compared to global models trained on the entire population. Personalized predictive models use information from similar patient cohorts, in order to capture the specific characteristics. Accurately identifying and ranking the similarity among patients based on their historical records is a key step in personalized modeling. The electric health records (EHRs), which are irregular sampled and have varied patient visit lengths, cannot be directly used to measure patient similarity due to lack of an appropriate vector representation. In this paper, we build a novel time fusion CNN framework to simultaneously learn patient representations and measure pairwise similarity. Compared to a traditional CNN, our time fusion CNN can learn not only the local temporal relationships but also the contributions from each time interval. Along with the similarity learning process, the output information which is the probability distribution is used to rank similar patients. Utilizing the similarity scores, we perform personalized disease predictions, and compare the effect of different vector representations and similarity learning metrics.