Robust adaptive algorithm for nonlinear systems with unknown measurement noise and uncertain parameters by variational Bayesian inference

Summary This paper studies an adaptive algorithm for the estimation problem of nonlinear systems with unknown or missing measurement noise and uncertain parameters using variational Bayesian (VB) inference. We combine VB inference with the Monte Carlo sampling technique to settle this problem. There are many cases of missing information, and because of the difficulty in obtaining the analytical results, the existing control methods for uncertain systems lack generality. We present a set of nonlinear recursive adaptive filtering algorithms that address the unknown parameters and probability density function. The proposed algorithms yield a separable variational approximation of the joint posterior distribution of noise parameters with uncertain parameters and states on each step separately. Estimation convergence and robustness against disturbances are guaranteed. A convergence result for VB inference is presented. Extensive simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithms.