Critical links detection in stochastic networks: application to the transport networks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study a multiple-origin-multiple-destination variant of dynamic critical nodes detection problem (DCNDP) and dynamic critical links detection problem (DCLDP) in stochastic networks. DCNDP and DCLDP consist of identifying the subset of nodes and links, respectively, whose deletion maximizes the stochastic shortest paths between all origins–destinations pairs, in the graph modeling the transport network. The identification of such nodes (or links) helps to better control the road traffic and predict the necessary measures to avoid congestion. Design/methodology/approach A Markovian decision process is used to model the shortest path problem under dynamic traffic conditions. Effective algorithms to determine the critical nodes (links) while considering the dynamicity of the traffic network are provided. Also, sensitivity analysis toward capacity reduction for critical links is studied. Moreover, the complexity of the underlying algorithms is analyzed and the computational efficiency resulting from the decomposition operation of the network into communities is highlighted. Findings The numerical results demonstrate that the use of dynamic shortest path (time dependency) as a metric has a significant impact on the identification of critical nodes/links and the experiments conducted on real world networks highlight the importance of sensitive links to dynamically detect critical links and elaborate smart transport plans. Research limitations/implications The research in this paper also revealed several challenges, which call for future investigations. First, the authors have restricted our experimentation to a small network where the only focus is on the model behavior, in the absence of historical data. The authors intend to extend this study to very large network using real data. Second, the authors have considered only congestion to assess network’s criticality; future research on this topic may include other factors, mainly vulnerability. Practical implications Taking into consideration the dynamic and stochastic nature in problem modeling enables to be effective tools for real-time control of transportation networks. This leads to design optimized smart transport plans particularly in disaster management, to improve the emergency evacuation effeciency. Originality/value The paper provides a novel approach to solve critical nodes/links detection problems. In contrast to the majority of research works in the literature, the proposed model considers dynamicity and betweenness while taking into account the stochastic aspect of transport networks. This enables the approach to guide the traffic and analyze transport networks mainly under disaster conditions in which networks become highly dynamic.