Population Planning after the One-Child Policy: Shifting Modes of Political Steering in China

Since late 2013, one of China’s most controversial policies—the one-child policy—has been gradually phased out, culminating in the reorganization of the National Health and Family Planning Commission in early 2018, which saw it drop the family planning part from its name. Has China forgone population intervention and started to pursue a liberal population policy? This article demonstrates that the Chinese political leadership is still determined to steer the direction of future demographic developments, even though it changed course and has to employ new modes of steering. In fact, it has even elevated political steering of demographic developments to new heights under the rubric of ‘top-level design’ (dingceng sheji). This study takes a comparative look at the two ends of the life course, birth and old age, to reveal the continuity and change in population planning and policy discourses in China. In sum, this article finds that while the ‘one-child policy’ is gone for good, population planning in a broader understanding—including policies on birth, aging, migration, and urbanization—is alive and well and it will stay here for the foreseeable future.