A Longitudinal Analysis of Income-Based Tax Regressivity of State-Sponsored Lotteries

Government-sponsored lotteries have been criticized for disproportionately generating revenues from lower-income consumers. Prior academic research on this aspect of government-sponsored lotteries reveals a set of conflicting findings: Many studies conclude that lotteries represent a form of regressive revenue production, whereas others conclude that lotteries represent proportional or even progressive revenue generation. Examination of the overall body of prior research suggests that lottery regressivity levels are not constant over time. With this research, the authors provide a more focused exploration of this issue by analyzing longitudinal sales data from six lottery states to determine patterns of change in lottery tax regressivity. The analyses provide preliminary evidence that lotteries become less regressive as they progress through their individual life cycles and as new marketing efforts—such as anonymous methods of play—become more prevalent. The authors explore implications for further lottery-related policy research, with particular emphasis on likely contributions from a relatively unexplored marketing perspective.