Association of Initial Disease-Modifying Therapy With Later Conversion to Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Importance: Within 2 decades of onset, 80% of untreated patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) convert to a phase of irreversible disability accrual termed secondary progressive MS. The association between disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), and this conversion has rarely been studied and never using a validated definition. Objective: To determine the association between the use, the type of, and the timing of DMTs with the risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS diagnosed with a validated definition. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study with prospective data from 68 neurology centers in 21 countries examining patients with relapsing-remitting MS commencing DMTs (or clinical monitoring) between 1988-2012 with minimum 4 years' follow-up. Exposures: The use, type, and timing of the following DMTs: interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, fingolimod, natalizumab, or alemtuzumab. After propensity-score matching, 1555 patients were included (last follow-up, February 14, 2017). Main Outcome and Measure: Conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive MS. Results: Of the 1555 patients, 1123 were female (mean baseline age, 35 years SD, 10). Patients initially treated with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta had a lower hazard of conversion to secondary progressive MS than matched untreated patients (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.61-0.81; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 12% 49 of 407 vs 27% 58 of 213; median follow-up, 7.6 years IQR, 5.8-9.6), as did fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.62; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 7% 6 of 85 vs 32% 56 of 174; median follow-up, 4.5 years IQR, 4.3-5.1); natalizumab (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43-0.86; P = .005; 5-year absolute risk, 19% 16 of 82 vs 38% 62 of 164; median follow-up, 4.9 years IQR, 4.4-5.8); and alemtuzumab (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P = .009; 5-year absolute risk, 10% 4 of 44 vs 25% 23 of 92; median follow-up, 7.4 years IQR, 6.0-8.6). Initial treatment with fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab was associated with a lower risk of conversion than initial treatment with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.99; P = .046); 5-year absolute risk, 7% 16 of 235 vs 12% 46 of 380; median follow-up, 5.8 years IQR, 4.7-8.0). The probability of conversion was lower when glatiramer acetate or interferon beta was started within 5 years of disease onset vs later (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.98; P = .03; 5-year absolute risk, 3% 4 of 120 vs 6% 2 of 38; median follow-up, 13.4 years IQR, 11-18.1). When glatiramer acetate or interferon beta were escalated to fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab within 5 years vs later, the HR was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66-0.88; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 8% 25 of 307 vs 14% 46 of 331, median follow-up, 5.3 years IQR, 4.6-6.1). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with relapsing-remitting MS, initial treatment with fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab was associated with a lower risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS vs initial treatment with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta. These findings, considered along with these therapies' risks, may help inform decisions about DMT selection.