Prediction Model for PV Performance With Correlation Analysis of Environmental Variables

With increasing installations of photovoltaic (PV) systems, interest in power forecasting has also increased. Inaccurate forecasts would result in substantial economic losses and system reliability issues. The correlation between weather variables and PV power is critical to ensure the efficient use of energy in PV systems. A key step toward accurate power forecasting is estimating the output from a PV system based on known environmental input data. In this research, all available weather data are used to predict the PV power. Meteorological and power data are then analyzed using a statistical approach to identify the order of significance of the input variables. Then, a predictive model is suggested as a function of irradiance, ambient temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. The model produces a root mean square error of 4.957% and a mean absolute percentage error of 5.468% during the measurement period and over the entire range of irradiation.