Vehicle yielding probability estimation model at unsignalized midblock crosswalks in Shanghai, China

The vehicle-pedestrian encounter at midblock crosswalks in urban centers is inevitable but the challenge to urban transportation planners is in achieving a balance between traffic flow efficiency and pedestrian safety. Vehicles are expected to yield to pedestrians who have a right of way at the midblock unsignalized crosswalks but, failure to yield causes conflicts that at times are fatal. This study investigated the effect of macroscopic factors on the vehicle yielding. Six environmental factors are considered: temporal gap size, number of traffic lanes, number of waiting pedestrians, position of pedestrian (whether on street kerb or median), traffic flow direction and presence (or absence) of monitoring ePolice. Video Data on six observed variables that influenced vehicle yielding was collected from 13 uncontrolled crosswalk locations in Shanghai city in the Peoples Republic of China. A Logit model with a 95.9% accuracy was developed to describe the vehicle yielding behavior. The results showed that gap size and number of traffic lanes had the highest influence on driver yielding decision and that drivers were more likely to yield if ePolice was present. The sensitivity analysis was conducted and appropriate recommendations on improving the pedestrians crossing safety were proposed accordingly.