Consequences of Excluding Armed Groups from Peace Negotiations: Chad and the Philippines

Abstract This article examines the relationship between inclusion/exclusion of armed groups and the achievement of durable peace, using process tracing in two case studies: the peace process between the government of Chad and the rebel group Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad, and the one between the government of the Philippines and the Moro National Liberation Front. The cases support theoretical arguments that excluded armed actors are more likely to renew armed confrontation after the peace accord. The study further elaborates the causal link: included armed rebels tend to negotiate for private benefits such as government posts and amnesty but also moderate their stances and emerge committed to the agreement; excluded armed actors lack any such commitment and still have unresolved grievances. They are thus more likely to renew armed action against the government.