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We characterized the association between tumor size kinetics and survival in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma treated with atezolizumab (anti-programmed death-ligand 1, Tecentriq) using a joint model. The model, developed on data from 309 patients of a phase II clinical trial, identified the time-to-tumor growth and the instantaneous changes in tumor size as the best on-treatment predictors of survival. On the validation dataset containing data from 457 patients from a phase III study, the model predicted individual survival probability using 3-month or 6-month tumor size follow-up data with an area under the receptor-occupancy curve between 0.75 and 0.84, as compared with values comprised between 0.62 and 0.75 when the model included only information available at treatment initiation. Including tumor size kinetics in a relevant statistical framework improves the prediction of survival probability during immunotherapy treatment and may be useful to identify most-at-risk patients in "real-time."
Tardivon et al. (Mon,) studied this question.