Corporate performance volatility and adverse macroeconomic conditions

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the extent to which volatility associated with corporate performance could be attributed to specific adverse macroeconomic conditions in a bivariate causality analysis. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to Granger causality analysis in verifying significant causal interactions if any, between corporate performance volatility and seven macroeconomic conditions or variables. Findings This study finds that economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have bidirectional causal interaction with corporate performance volatility. In addition, estimated results further suggest significant unidirectional causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and inflation expectations, exchange rate volatility, inflation and inflation uncertainty, with direction of causality running from the macroeconomic variables toward corporate performance volatility. This study, however, found no significant causal interaction between corporate performance volatility and recessionary probability or likelihood of recession. Practical implications This study’s conclusions could have significant and critical policy implications for key corporate policymakers responsible for corporate performance strategy. Various causal interactions identified could inform policy framework and, subsequently, strategies geared toward minimizing volatility associated with performance during episodes of any of the various macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. Originality/value The uniqueness of this study stems from its focus on corporate performance volatility instead of corporate performance and potential causal interactions it might have with key adverse macroeconomic conditions, some of which have not been examined in previous studies according to reviewed literature.