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We use Monte Carlo realizations of halo formation histories and a spherical accretion model to calculate the expected scatter in the velocity dispersions of galactic halos of a given mass due to differences in their formation times. Assuming that the rotational velocity of a spiral galaxy is determined by the velocity dispersion of its halo and that its luminosity is related to its total baryonic mass, this scatter translates to a minimum intrinsic scatter in the Tully-Fisher relation. For popular cosmological models we find that the scatter due to variations in formation histories is by itself greater than allowed by observations. Unless halos of spiral galaxies formed at high redshift (z>1) and did not later accrete any significant amount of mass, the Tully-Fisher relation is not likely to be the direct result of cosmological initial conditions but rather a consequence of a subsequent feedback process.
Eisenstein et al. (Fri,) studied this question.