Expanding Futuring Foresight through Evaluative Thinking

Both futurists and evaluators are interested in altering perceptions and actions in the present, the impact of which will be a changed future. Evaluators do so by looking at what has already occurred; futurists do so by forecasting what may occur, often imagining alternative scenarios. Assessing the likelihood of various future scenarios requires evaluative thinking and judgments. Thus, futurists and evaluators can learn from each other. This article presents the logic behind six different approaches to evaluation and the implications of those distinctions and logics for futurist inquiries and applications. The six evaluation approaches are summative evaluation, formative evaluation, developmental evaluation, systems change evaluation, principles-focused evaluation, and Blue Marble evaluation.