The non-linear impact of industrial structure on CO2 emissions in China

This paper employs panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to investigate the nonlinear effects of the upgrading of an industrial structure and CO2 emissions in China. The panel data set includes the 30 provinces and autonomous regions during the period 1997–2015. Empirical results show that the proportion of the tertiary industry increased the carbon emission effect was obvious, as the proportion of the secondary industry in the economic development increased, the trend of increasing carbon emissions slowed down, besides, the marginal effects of the explaining variables and selected optimal threshold variable on the CO2 emissions are non-linear and vary with time.