A Population Modelling Approach to Studying Age-Related Effects on Excitation-Contraction Coupling in Human Cardiomyocytes

A bstract Ageing is the dominant risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. A great body of experimental data has been gathered on cellular remodelling in the Ageing myocardium from animals. Very few experimental data are available on age-related changes in the human cardiomyocyte. We have used our combined electromechanical model of the human cardiomyocyte and the population modelling approach to investigate the variability in the response of cardiomyocytes to age-related changes in the model parameters. To generate the model population, we varied nine model parameters and excluded model samples with biomarkers falling outside of the physiological ranges. We evaluated the response to age-related changes in four electrophysiological model parameters reported in the literature: reduction in the density of the K + transient outward current, maximal velocity of SERCA, and an increase in the density of NaCa exchange current and CaL-type current. The sensitivity of the action potential biomarkers to individual parameter variations was assessed. Each parameter modulation caused an increase in APD, while the sensitivity of the model to changes in G CaL and V maxᵤp was much higher than to those in the effects of G to and K NaCa. Then 60 age-related sets of the four parameters were randomly generated and each set was applied to every model in the control population. We calculated the frequency of model samples with repolarisation anomalies (RA) and the shortening of the electro-mechanical window in the ageing model populations as an arrhythmogenic ageing score. The linear dependence of the score on the deviation of the parameters showed a high determination coefficient with the most significant impact due to the age-related change in the CaL current. The population-based approach allowed us to classify models with low and high risk of age-related RA and to predict risks based on the control biomarkers.