Modeling changes in China’s 2000–2030 carbon stock caused by land use change

Land use change featured by rapid urban expansion and the loss of forests and grasslands can lead to substantial carbon emissions that contribute to greenhouse heating. We propose a cellular automata model to predict land use scenarios and use these to estimate China’s total carbon stock and its 2000–2030 variation. The results show that the total carbon stock of Chinese terrestrial ecosystems is ∼98 Gt. The total quantity decreases by 0.2% and the annual carbon emissions related to land use change decreases slightly during 2000–2030. Urban expansion in developed areas is the leading cause of carbon emissions, accounting for more than one-quarter of the carbon emissions in these areas. In other areas, the loss of forests and grasslands is the leading cause of carbon emissions, accounting for more than half of the emissions in these areas. In a few sub-regions, an increase of carbon stock is found that can be linked to environmental policies like Grain-for-Green. These improve our understanding of long-term changes in China’s carbon stock and its drivers as they relate to land use change. Ultimately, this work should help governments to adjust land use policies, to refine carbon emission reduction strategies, and to construct and implement better regulations using feedbacks from the model.