Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum: political parties, opportunity and timing

By focusing on the importance of timing, this research highlights the effects of decisions made during the years 2005–2017 that placed the Kurdish political elite on the trajectory towards an independence referendum. The focus of this paper is the struggle between the two major political parties, the implications from the War on the Islamic State (IS), and the change in access to oil revenue. It can be determined that the intersection of these processes over time resulted in the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum. Timing has been an aspect of referenda and secessionist movements that has not been given enough acknowledgement and consideration. The opportunities presented to the Kurdish political elite in 2017 were not present in the previous years and the independence referendum’s timing was due to the interaction and intersection of these processes. The purpose of this research is to determine why the Kurdish political elite decided upon an independence referendum in 2017, rather than at any other point after the U.S. intervention in Iraq. As more groups within states across the world are aspiring towards self-determination and secessionist movements are arising, the Kurdish question is being renewed and has become an important aspect of politics in the region.